The Chinese under Chou En Lai and Mao was an emerging communist nation. India and China both vast countries with big populations signed the Pansheel agreement with a popular slogan – Hindi Chini Bhai bhai. Jawaharlal Nehru trusted the Chinese but they betrayed him by launching an attack on India in 1962, to teach India a lesson for sheltering the Dalai Lama who fled from Tibet ......
A few years ago, a retired senior army officer who was
posted on the volatile India-China border narrated in a television interview –
The morale is high of the Indian forces. Indian soldiers are well-equipped to
face any eventuality. The Sikhs, Jats and other soldiers are big compared to
the shorter Chinese soldiers. In jest, they call them – Chinky, smiled the army
officer. And further assured 1962 will not be repeated again. If the Chinese
attempt any misadventure, they will get a bloodied nose for sure as done in
1967 and 1987.
And this was proved in many brief skirmishes with the
Chinese along the LAC periodically, especially in Galwan and recent Tawang
clashes. Indians responded in their own language and they retreated and ran
away with a bloodied nose. Defense experts suggest China wont dare a full scale
war with India but will try to provoke the Indians on the LAC in different
sectors to keep them in check. Some feel it to be a ploy to make India avoid
focus on the South China sea and the sea route where Chinese oil and shipment
pass through and very vital to China. Another possibility being, due to
internal strife in China, to divert attention of the Chinese people they may
create some trouble on the LAC. Surely a limited local clash knowing well India’s
response recently.
The Chinese like to remind India of the 1962 debacle.
It happened just 15 years after Independence from the long British rule.
Independent India in the initial years was busy in keeping all the states
united and occupied in development programs and implementing the new policies
and planning and construction of new mega projects like dams, roads, expanding
the railways, creating major public sector units, academics, colleges and
institutions. The new nation, the people and the government was settling down
and getting a foothold in governance and administration of a vast country.
The Chinese under Chou En Lai and Mao was an emerging
communist nation. India and China both vast countries with big populations
signed the Pansheel agreement with a popular slogan – Hindi Chini Bhai bhai.
Jawaharlal Nehru trusted the Chinese but they betrayed him by launching an
attack on India in 1962, to teach India a lesson for sheltering the Dalai Lama
who fled from Tibet as the Chinese occupied Tibet claiming it to be part of
China. Nehru was a broken man and never fully recovered from this betrayal and
died a broken man.
The Chinese from time to time do aggressive posturing
and like to remind India about the 1962 defeat. Just before independence in
1947 the Indian army was divided with a part of it, most Muslim personnel
opting to join the Pakistan army. The army was taking stock of the new situation,
of men, regiments, armaments, postings and were not prepared for mountain
warfare with no adequate clothing, special equipment, guns, weapons; and an
ill-prepared army had to suddenly face the Chinese assault as the Indian forces
had been involved in driving the Pakistani forces and tribesmen from Kashmir in
1948. And as they were coming to terms with Kashmir issue, soon after another
war was thrust on the nation.
The Chinese at every opportunity remind India of the
1962 debacle but conveniently forget the 1967 and 1987 defeat at the hands of
the Indian army. The Indian forces retaliated and the Chinese suffered heavy
causalities and had to run for their lives. And the Chinese never dared to
encroach on these areas again. And for decades LAC was quiet until the coming
of the new geo-political situation and realizing that India could choke the Chinese
shipments which they depend heavily for oil, raw materials and other
commodities bringing China to its knees. Hence the ploy to distract and keep
India occupied in the Himalayas.
Since then, India has come a long way with mountain
warfare, training, clothing, equipment, guns and this led to the formation of a
special Mountain division trained to fight in high altitudes and difficult
conditions. This mountain division is considered to be the best in mountain
warfare. Few skirmishes have been taking place along the LAC, at Ladakh and
Arunachal Pradesh, mostly testing the India’s preparedness and response. The
Indian response has been tit for tat upsetting the Chines plans. There is a
visible show of aggression from the Indian side too since they have been given
a free hand to deal with local situations. In the pushing and shoving between
the Indian and Chinese soldiers, you often get to hear the choicest abuses in
Punjabi and at times saying – gol gappa kayega!
Some years ago, the Doklam standoff happened. It was
an eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation, a battle of nerves as to who will blink
first. There was no let down by the Indians and finally the Chinese had to back
off after a series of talks. But they continue to provoke the Indian forces all
along the LAC with aggressive posturing and walking into Indian territory. The
alert Indian forces push them back with force. And this mostly happens as the
borders are not demarcated and the perception on both sides vary.
Some months back an incident that happened on the LAC
boosted the Indian spirit and fired up the nation, the Chinese realized it’s
not going to be easy with India any more. It also changed the Indian approach
making the Chinese wary of India. During one such skirmishes at the
Sikkim-China border, the Chinese came close to the Indian forces and declared –
Sikkim is not Indian territory and argued with the Indians. A young Indian
officer posted there for a few weeks standing nearby was so enraged and
instantly punched the Chinese Colonel, the impact was such that he fell down
with a broken nose. This tells the mood of the nation. A clear warning to the
Chinese not to mess with India.
The incident at Galwan and the recent clashes at
Tawang, the Chinese were trying to prove a point that they are superior and
wanted to teach Indians a lesson, but they never expected the Indians would
retaliate so forcefully and brutally attack the Chinese soldiers; they were
stunned by the Indian reaction. They ran to save their lives. Both sides
suffered casualties, but the Chinese side suffered a large number of
casualties. It forced them to make changes at their command like shifting the demoralized
troops with fresh troops. Now the Chinese know the Indian response and will be
vary before making any wrong move. Military experts expect the Chinese to
needle India from time to time to divert India’s attention and slowdown India’s
progress and development and also distract India on its focus on world affairs.
They are upset many major global brands have shifted manufacturing to India.
The internal political strife is pushing them to do things which they would
normally avoid. But one can never trust the Chinese, they say one thing and do
just the opposite. India needs to be on its guard.
Economic Survey 2022-23: What does it say about
inflation
Economic Survey said that RBI's inflation projections
for FY23 are neither too low nor too high.
The management of inflation in India has been "particularly
noteworthy", in contrast with advanced economies, the Economic Survey
2022-23 released recently said. It said that in 2023-24 (FY24), the inflation
challenge is expected to be "less stiff" than it was in FY23.
"Due to the anticipated slowdown in advanced
economies, inflation risks coming from global commodity prices are likely to be
lower in FY24 than in FY23. However, in terms of overall risks to the benign
baseline view on inflation, upside risks to India's projected rates may
outweigh the downside risks," it said. It also said that the Reserve Bank
of India's (RBI's) projection of retail inflation at 6.8 per cent in the
current fiscal is neither too high to deter private consumption nor so low as
to weaken inducement to invest.
However, entrenched inflation may prolong the
tightening cycle, so borrowing costs may stay "higher for longer", it
said. "In such a scenario, the global economy may be characterised by low
growth in FY24," it said. However, the scenario of subdued global growth
presents two silver linings, low oil prices and better than projected CAD
(Current Account Deficit). "Overall external situation will remain
manageable," it added.
Among the events that lead to high inflation is the
re-emergence of Covid-19 in China, which can trigger supply chain disruptions. "On
the other hand, if China returns to normalcy from Covid-19, there can be a
surge in commodity demand - thus reversing the recent slump in commodity
prices," it said.
Also, a soft landing in the US economy might keep up
the US demand for oil. It can also have an impact on India's imported
inflation, the document said. According to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI),
India's retail inflation will grow by 5 per cent in the first quarter of FY24
and at 5.4 per cent in the next quarter.
Retail inflation fell to a year-low level of 5.72 per
cent in December, while wholesale inflation was at a 22-month low of 4.95 per
cent.
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