Thursday, 25 November 2021

Has China met a tough opponent in India?


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Has China met a tough opponent in India?

China occupied the Galvan Valley and thought that it will go unnoticed. Once the skirmish turned out to be too costly with five times the casualty on their side compared to India, China realised that India is too strong for them. India once again claimed its positions in the northern Banks of Pongong Tso in Ladakh upto Finger 4 and are well entrenched there, in a surprise move. China never expected India to surprise them with such moves..... 

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China has been bullying its neighbours and the countries sharing its borders or across the sea and its animosity towards Taiwan is well-known, claiming it as a part of China. Taiwan has been provoked and tested over the years. Trying to teach Vietnam a lesson, the Chinese learnt a bitter lesson and got a bloody nose. After that they're careful not to provoke or interfere in Vietnam. Similarly they prodded and tested India over a period of time to check its response and it's preparedness in sensitive areas in different sectors on the India-China border from Ladakh to Arunachal Pradesh.

Earlier the Chinese would cross LAC provoke the Indian Army, get into skirmishes and then show that the Indians started it all by entering their area. And they would get away with this till recently. All this changed when a young Indian Major abused and punched a Chinese Officer in one of the sectors in Arunachal Pradesh when the Chinese official claimed Arunachal Pradesh was Chinese territory. The Chinese soon realised that the mood has changed in India. Indians are fully prepared for any tit for tat action. This surprised the Chinese planners. This had never happened earlier. Indians in earlier years were in a defensive mode and mostly reactive to Chinese moves. Now Indians are ready to give back the Chinese really hard. And they very well know, Indians in an aggressive mode would be difficult for them to handle. India has accused China of taking unilateral attempts to try and alter the status quo in agreement with the bilateral agreements. 

Zhang Shiuli, a PLA spokesperson for the region, said, ‘The sovereignty over the Galvan Valley area has always belonged to China.’ Similarly, Zhao was using language not generally heard in diplomatic circles, blaming the Indian army for its ‘adventurous acts’ that breached ‘basic norms governing international relations.’ He also demanded that India ‘strictly discipline’ and ‘severely punish’ its troops. All these outbursts happened after the 15 June exchange between India and China. Galvan incident showed the Chinese what Indians are capable of and the damage the army can inflict on their forces.

On July, 3rd, after Modi visited Ladakh border area, and while giving a speech in Leh admonished China for its expansionist policies stating ‘The age of expansionism is over and this is the age of development. History knows that expansionist forces have either lost or were forced to turn back.’ The reaction of China changed completely. The whole morning China remained silent, but in the afternoon Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said, ‘India and China are in communication and negotiations on lowering the temperatures through military and diplomatic channels. No party should engage in any action that may escalate the situation at this point.’ China became too mellowed down. China never expected Modi to be so hard hitting on them. This turn around clearly indicate that China has become too defensive and find India harder than expected.

China occupied the Galvan Valley and thought that it will go unnoticed. Once the skirmish turned out to be too costly with five times the casualty on their side compared to India, China realised that India is too strong for them. India once again claimed its positions in the northern Banks of Pongong Tso in Ladakh upto Finger 4 and are well entrenched there, in a surprise move. China never expected India to surprise them with such moves. China is certainly finding India a tough game. Indian Army accuses Chinese PLA of violating protocols.

India is confronting China diplomatically, economically and militarily. India has already banned 119 Chinese Apps. Also has given a clarion call to be vocal for local products. China is losing economically too. China also has been seeing many nations including US and Russia, supporting India, against them. China knows in the event of a war it may have to contend with multiple countries and multiple theaters. Hence China has found India to be a hard nut to crack. Do not want to face the fate PLA had to undergo with its fight against Vietnam in 1979. China has realised India to be too strong for them. They are different from the smaller countries in its neighbourhood.

Did the Indian Army capture Chinese PLA camps in the Pangong Tso area as mentioned in some reports? The high area is also known as blacktop where initially China had installed cameras for observing India's activities. Though it was not captured officially by China but Indian army gathered information that Chinese army is planning to install a permanent base here so Indian army captured this high point and threw all Chinese installed equipment's.

Officially it was part of Indian Territory but China claimed this as their side of LAC, which is not even actual border as it is occupied by China since 1962 war. Chinese soldiers tried to capture this back but Indian army deployed there pushed them back.  China is nervous and has deployed its T-15 lightweight tanks pointing at the Indian army on this blacktop. In retaliation India has deployed its Bhishma T-90 Tanks aiming at the China forces. Any untoward incident could flare up into a full scale war.

But it is very clear that after military attempts to recapture this point and two failures has made the Chinese very nervous. Also this first proactive step by India against China was beyond Chinese imagination or anticipation and a complete surprise for China. They never expected India to take a proactive action. And are now realizing their earlier policy of needling India in different sectors may well have the opposite reaction, of literally provoking the Indian army who could react and cause large scale damage to men and machinery, as Indian forces are well deployed with adequate men, equipment and weapons. Any Chinese intrusion or adventure will not be tolerated.

The Chinese have also realized arm twisting India won't work anymore. They're aware India can damage their interests, commerce and business even without fighting a war. This Diwali proved that. The boycott of Chinese products hit them hard. They also know if they provoke or harass India, they too can do the same and screw them in Indian Ocean, their life line. And their think tanks are also slowly realizing a friendly India is better for their growth and progress rather than antagonize India and pay the price with loss in trade and commerce, besides hurting them militarily and diplomatically too. Ideally maintaining status quo will suit them.

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