Reproduced here is a must read article on how our lives will change dramatically in 20 years by CEO of Mercedes.
In a recent interview the MD of Daimler Benz (Mercedes Benz) said their
competitors are no longer other car companies but Tesla (obvious), Google,
Apple, Amazon .
Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the
biggest taxi company in the world
Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't
own any properties.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding
the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years
earlier than expected.
In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you
can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with
90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.
So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less lawyers in the
future, only specialists will remain.
Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than
human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can
recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more
intelligent than humans.
Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the
public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You
don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will
show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need
to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while
driving. Our kids will never get a driver's licence and will never own a car.
It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that.
We can transform former parking spaces into parks. 1.2 million people die each
year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 miles
(100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 6
million miles (10 million km). That will save a million lives each year.
Most car companies will probably become bankrupt. Traditional car companies
try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies
(Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer
on wheels.
Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla.
Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the
insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will
disappear.
Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people
will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.
Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less noisy
because all new cars will run on electricity. Electricity will become
incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve
for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact.
Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy
companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent
competition from home solar installations, but that can't last. Technology will
take care of that strategy.
With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt
water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We don't have scarce
water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be
possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no
cost.
Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are
companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder"
from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your
blood sample and you breath into it.
It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It
will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to
world class medical analysis, nearly for free. Goodbye, medical establishment.
3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to
$400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major
shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes.
Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The
space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount
of spare parts they used to have in the past.
At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning
possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at
home.
In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-storey office building.
By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.
Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask
yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the
answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?
If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed
for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.
Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a
lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a
small time.
Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers
in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of
working all day on their fields.
Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal, is
now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now,
30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need
that space anymore. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to
the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labelled as
"alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the
idea of eating insects).
There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which
mood you're in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial
expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being
displayed when they're telling the truth and when they're not.
Bitcoin may even become the default reserve currency ... Of the world!
Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year.
Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The
increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year
increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more
than 100.
Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia.
By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the
same access to world class education.
Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child needs to learn at
school in First World countries. There have already been releases of software
in Indonesia and soon there will be releases in Arabic, Suaheli and Chinese
this summer. I can see enormous potential if we give the English app for free,
so that children in Africa and everywhere else can become fluent in English and
that could happen within half a year.
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Picture Post:
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| The Municipal Corporation building, Mumbai, India. |
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MyPost:
Whom to marry?
The real problem for many young and not so young women are to find the elusive perfect mate, even though they are familiar with many perfectly smart, educated and acceptable male friends.
I have heard from acquaintances eager to marry but unable to find the right match with whom they can settle down and have babies. But most of the times, they reject one suitor after another preferring the freedom and independence of being single. And years pass by when they realise their folly as they enter their thirties.
And as far as middle-aged or elderly woman are concerned, actress Susan Sarandon says – When a person is in love, it is the soul of the person that matters, the question of age, sex, colour no longer hold any importance.
But today, working women appreciates her independence, though she has many male friends. Financial stability and personal security is no longer a trigger for marriage, romance or relationship. What she seeks is a partner and soulmate to share the life and grow old gracefully as years go by.
Big Moments of Life!
Marriage in any one’s life is special. Normally it happens once in a life time. Weddings, these days have become gala affairs but one can ensure the most important or simple moments are etched in memory.
The traditional wedding album or photo books, which are filled with candid pictures taken before, during and after the wedding; covering the elaborate arrangements, venue, pandit, his chanting of mantras, ceremonies, pheras, kanyadhan, host of relatives and close guests, and the feast, the variety of food and buffets are all captured forever.
Along with the cliched pictures, the unseen moments of the wedding, the various expressions of happiness, etc which the bridal couple can relive in later years. Some photographers use sepia tone to enhance the true emotions.
The simple moments of life become the big moments of life for the couple and others.
The real problem for many young and not so young women are to find the elusive perfect mate, even though they are familiar with many perfectly smart, educated and acceptable male friends.
I have heard from acquaintances eager to marry but unable to find the right match with whom they can settle down and have babies. But most of the times, they reject one suitor after another preferring the freedom and independence of being single. And years pass by when they realise their folly as they enter their thirties.
And as far as middle-aged or elderly woman are concerned, actress Susan Sarandon says – When a person is in love, it is the soul of the person that matters, the question of age, sex, colour no longer hold any importance.
But today, working women appreciates her independence, though she has many male friends. Financial stability and personal security is no longer a trigger for marriage, romance or relationship. What she seeks is a partner and soulmate to share the life and grow old gracefully as years go by.
Big Moments of Life!
Marriage in any one’s life is special. Normally it happens once in a life time. Weddings, these days have become gala affairs but one can ensure the most important or simple moments are etched in memory.
The traditional wedding album or photo books, which are filled with candid pictures taken before, during and after the wedding; covering the elaborate arrangements, venue, pandit, his chanting of mantras, ceremonies, pheras, kanyadhan, host of relatives and close guests, and the feast, the variety of food and buffets are all captured forever.
Along with the cliched pictures, the unseen moments of the wedding, the various expressions of happiness, etc which the bridal couple can relive in later years. Some photographers use sepia tone to enhance the true emotions.
The simple moments of life become the big moments of life for the couple and others.
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